Gold is currently trading at $4,135.80 per ounce (XAU/USD spot), down $4.72 (-0.11%) from Monday's close (around $4,140.52). It is hovering in a narrow range between $4,115 and $4,155 without a clearer trend, near support at $4,132.59 and below the mid-range zone ($4,152-$4,154). High Treasury yields (10-year yield at 5.119% after Monday's jump to around $5.14%) and a steady dollar (the index at $101.59 for December contracts) are weighing on the precious metal. Meanwhile, oil remains near $110 as Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities escalate, and Asia is declining amid concerns about AI spending. Today's gold news focuses on the dollar and yields ahead of housing data, the earnings season, and Goldman Sachs' estimate of central bank purchases in August.
The market now (morning readings):
Gold: 4,135.80 (-0.11%), down about 26.1% from the January peak (5,595), and about $61 (1.5%) higher than the weekly support of 4,074.68.
Silver: $57.40 (+0.23%), and the gold-to-silver ratio is approximately 72.1.
Dollar Index (December contracts): 101.590 (-0.196, -0.19%), after the spot dollar index finished Monday up 0.2% near 101.98.
Yields: 10-year 5.119% (-1.8 basis points), 2-year 4.757% (-0.4), 30-year 5.453% (-2.0). These yields dipped slightly this morning after the 10-year contract closed at around 5.14% on Monday.
Oil: Brent $109.96 (+0.37%) and WTI $98.80 (+0.26%), Natural Gas $3.013 (-1.54%).
Industrial metals: Copper 6.558 (-0.33%) and Aluminum 3.029.75 (+0.71%).
Other bonds: US Treasury futures rose 0.10%-0.18%, Eurobonds +0.08%, and British Gilts -0.49%.
Gold market value: A loss of about $34 billion on paper from Monday's close (about 222,600 tons).
Gold news today
Wall Street rebounded. US stocks closed higher on Monday, led by technology: the Nasdaq up 1.11% to 26,431, the S&P 500 up 0.41% to 7,691, and the Dow down 0.07% to 51,966. The VIX, the fear index, fell 7.75% to 18.44, after a week in which stocks suffered their worst decline since June. However, yields rose with this rebound, and gold lost 0.6% on Monday amid renewed bond selling.
Yields and the dollar. The 10-year yield jumped nearly 6 basis points on Monday to around 5.14%, strengthening the dollar (its index up 0.2% near 101.98) and putting pressure on gold, which traded between $4,155 and $4,190 during European trading. In Europe, the euro is under pressure from political concerns stemming from violent protests in France (the Franco-German bond spread is 147.3 basis points) and escalating fighting between Russia and Ukraine.
The Fed. The Fed enters a period of silence before its October 27-28 meeting, and markets are pricing in an 84% probability of holding the meeting. Yields and the dollar will move based on data releases: today's housing index, followed by earnings.
Oil. Brent near $110 and WTI near $99 amid unconfirmed reports of new Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities, and Trump's order to waive some sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy, keeping inflation fears alive.
Asia. The Nikkei fell by about 0.8%, the Kospi by about 2.3%, and Australia's ASX 200 by about 0.6%, with Asian chip stocks sliding as concerns about spending on artificial intelligence remained, ahead of results from leading companies in the sector this week.
Central banks. Goldman Sachs estimated central bank gold purchases at 79 tons in August, compared to 17 tons before 2022. China was the largest identifiable buyer, purchasing approximately 25 tons, and this demand is still seen as structural support for gold. This figure is higher than the World Gold Council's estimate, which puts China's purchases at 23 tons in August and total purchases at 39 tons.
Gold is retreating slightly after closing Monday with a 0.6% loss near 4,140, as real yields and the dollar are proving stronger than geopolitical factors and oil in driving its price, as demonstrated last week.
Technical Analysis (WarrenAI, 30-minute timeframe, 8:17 AM)
Gold is within a directionless range.
XAU/USD is trading at 4,135.16 (-0.13%) according to the latest reading, and the picture is neutral with a slight downward bias: the price is below the moving averages.
Resistance: SuperTrend at 4,145.33 (short trend is down), SMA(20) at 4,138.12, SMA(50) at 4,153.58, SMA(200) at 4,152.39. The SMA(50) and SMA(200) are converging at 4,152-4,154, forming a barrier, and any rebound needs to close above 4,155.
Support: 4,132.59 (50% Fibonacci), then 4,117.01 (61.8%), then 4,115.84 (range support), then 4,066.57 (previous low).
Momentum: MACD at -3.02 versus signal -4.80 (short improvement but does not confirm an upward move).
Candles: The appearance of a Doji at 4,135.71 at 5:00 AM confirms hesitation, not reversal.
Range: 4,115-4,155, fluctuating between 4,125 and 4,145.
