TASI stands at 10,312.99 points
The Saudi Stock Exchange’s general index (TASI) is trading at 10,312.99 points, in a session where National Steel shares rose 9.93% to 3.21 riyals with 10.48 million shares traded, while trading data shows a significant foreign outflow from Al Rajhi Bank and Extra.
Here's the question that neither price nor news answers: Are these stocks cheap or expensive? InvestingPro estimates fair value, which is the difference between each stock's price and its intrinsic worth. This is available for Saudi stocks, as well as stocks in markets around the world.
The flash sale ends on Thursday, October 15 at 7 pm Riyadh time (8 pm UAE time).
National Steel: +77% since leaving Nomu... and about 35% above its fair value
Today: +9.93% to 3.21 riyals, the most traded stock (10.48 million shares).
Since the transfer: Its last price before its transfer from the parallel market was 1.82 riyals, meaning it has increased by about 77%.
Peak: Highest since March 2024.
Fair value: InvestingPro estimates its fair value to be approximately 35% below its price.
He wasn't alone. The fish stock rose 9.99% to 58.35 riyals, and its fair value is about 43% lower than its price.
This is a pattern from today's session. Of the 50 most actively traded gainers, 18 are trading above their fair value, with an average distance from fair value of only 3.2%. Conversely, of the 50 most actively traded lossers, 35 are trading below their fair value, with an average distance of 21.1%. This means the market rewarded stocks close to or above their fair value and penalized those that were undervalued. The names of the remaining stocks and their respective distances are available to InvestingPro subscribers.
Extra: Foreigners left at the strongest pace
Extra's stock fell 8% in a negative reaction to its financial results, and foreigners sold more than one million shares in that session.
Ownership: It fell from 19.31% to 17.97%, a drop of 1.34 percentage points in a single session. This is the largest single-session foreign outflow since they entered the stock.
Foreign portfolio: 14.38 million shares worth 771.99 million riyals.
Peak: Foreign ownership reached its highest point in March 2025 at 23.33%, when the stock was at 96.10 riyals.
In its report dated September 28, JPMorgan lowered its target price for the stock to SAR 80 from SAR 108.5. The reduction is attributed to an adjustment in the subsidiary's outlook and a rise in the cost of capital, while maintaining a positive outlook for the retail business.
Retail: Retail revenues grew 8% in 2025 and 5% in the first half of 2026. Extra's share of the consumer electronics market is around 23%, and e-commerce accounts for around 22% of retail sales.
Facilitation: Loan portfolio growth slowed to around 14% in the first half, and the non-performing loan ratio rose to around 12%, with coverage falling to 32%. The bank expects its profits to decline by 19% in 2026.
The group: Expects adjusted net profit of 473 million riyals in 2026, rising to 527 million in 2027.
The stock is at SAR 55.45. This means that InvestingPro's fair value is about 52% higher than its price, and JPMorgan's target price is about 44% higher. However, the foreign divestment and the lowered target price serve as a reminder that low prices on paper alone are not enough.
Al Rajhi: Lowest foreign ownership in nearly two years
Foreign ownership in Al Rajhi Bank has fallen to 14.11%, the lowest in nearly two years, after they sold more than 5 million shares two business days ago.
Foreign portfolio: 846.6 million shares worth 52.74 billion riyals.
Price: The exit coincided with the stock falling to its lowest level in a year. Breaking the 58.5 riyal level represents the lowest price since November 2024.
Peak: Highest foreign ownership reached 16.24% in February 2026.
Weight: No single large owner owns 5% or more, and it is the most influential stock in the movement of the index.
The stock is at 62.15 riyals (+0.32%), and the fair value on InvestingPro is about 10.5% higher than its price.
What do we do with this?
Foreign selling doesn't necessarily mean a stock is overvalued, and local buying doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap. Sometimes market forces drive a stock above its value (like National Steel), and sometimes they exit below it. Therefore, you need to rely on measurement rather than hearsay.
Fair Value: Combines up to 17 valuation models to estimate value, and measures the distance between price and value.
Financial Soundness Index: Evaluates the company using more than 100 criteria to determine whether profits and debt support the price.
WarrenAI 2.0: Ask it about any stock in TASI, and it will review its work up to 10 times against 14 reliable sources and present its reasoning.
ProPicks AI: 88 strategies in 28 markets, including TASI stars and Saudi financial and energy stocks.
Thursday, October 15, 7 PM
The flashback ends:
7:00 PM Cairo, Riyadh, Kuwait, Amman and Baghdad time
8:00 PM UAE and Oman time
5:00 PM Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia time
After that, prices return to normal.
