TASI Today: Saudi stocks declined today in the middle of Monday's session, with the general index TASI trading at 10,283.51 points, down 77.23 points (-0.75%) from Sunday's close (10,360.74), and approaching the support level of 10,239.38, according to WarrenAI analysis. This comes after a sixth consecutive losing week, the longest since late 2022. The session follows an attack on King Khalid International Airport, announced by the General Authority of Civil Aviation, and a projectile falling near Dammam Airport, according to the coalition, and precedes a busy week with US bank earnings and September inflation data.

Indicator: The trend of recent days

Monday (now): 10,283.51 (-0.75%), which is about 0.9% lower than Thursday's close, and about 2% lower than the 2025 close (10,490.69) by approximate calculation.

Sunday, October 11: It closed at 10,360.74 (-15.54 points, -0.15%) with trading of 2.6 billion riyals and 163 million shares. Shares of 107 companies rose and 151 declined. Nomu rose 88.92 points to 21,701.36. The index had fallen by about 1% to 10,274 in early trading before reducing its losses.

Thursday, October 8: Closed at 10,376.28 (-165.95 points, -1.57%), the lowest close since January 2026, with trading volume of approximately 4.4 billion riyals.

Last week: The index lost about 0.16%, its sixth consecutive weekly loss, after Thursday's decline erased previous days' gains, mainly due to pressure from banks.

What the official bodies announced

King Khalid Airport (Saturday, October 10): The General Authority of Civil Aviation announced that the brutal attack resulted in the death of 12 people (4 Saudis and 8 residents of different nationalities) and the injury of 309, with a temporary suspension of operations.

Sunday: The authority announced new injuries and damages, and a coalition spokesman said that a cruise missile was intercepted in the vicinity of the airport and that a projectile fell near King Fahd Airport in Dammam.

The perpetrator: The agency did not identify the party responsible, but reports attribute the attacks to the Houthis. Trump reportedly said he would consider the possibility of US participation in the Saudi-led strikes against the Houthis.

Market: There is no evidence that the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) movement is solely due to these developments, and it coincided with the earnings season and the weakness of banks.

Stock movement mid-session

From my list of most active and biggest losers (shots between 11:34 and 11:56):

Broadening: Out of the 50 most actively traded stocks, 37 declined, 11 rose, and 2 remained unchanged.

Most active: “National Steel” (+9.77% at 2.92, with about 15.78 million shares), which is about 46% higher than the price of 2.00 on the day trading began, then “Al-Baha” (+3.06% with about 9.87 million shares), then “Anabeeb” (-0.79%), “Batk” (-1.12%) and “Al-Ahli” (-0.43%).

The rising companies: Redan (+4.59% at 19.14), Al-Dawaeia (+3.43%), Al-Sharq Pipes (+2.49% at 172.60), and Sidq (+1.96%).

Leading stocks: Al Rajhi 61.90 (-0.72%), Aramco 25.58 (-0.47%), Al Ahli 37.30 (-0.43%), stc 42.44 (-0.38%), Ma’aden 61.50 (-0.81%), Elm 573.50 (-0.69%), Mobily 62.15 (-1.35%), and Almarai 43.34 (-1.19%).

The biggest losers among the active stocks were: Adis (-3.05% at 16.19, with about 717,000 shares traded), Arabiya (-2.79%), Tadawul Group (-2.33% at 117.50), SABIC (-2.11% at 45.52), SABIC Agricultural Nutrients (-2.63% at 114.60), Jabal Omar (-2.02%), Najran Cement (-2.27%), and Al Kathiri (-1.80%, with about 2.62 million shares traded).

Results: Extra's stock fell 0.98% to 55.45 after the third quarter results announced last week.

Liquidity warning: Stocks with small volumes topped the list of biggest losers, including “Khaled Zafer & Brothers” (-11.11% with about 9,200 shares), “Mineral Energy” (-6.67% with about 5,500 shares) and “Shour” (-5.45% with about 280 shares), which do not reflect a market trend.

Number of stocks that declined by more than 2%: 31 stocks on the list of biggest losers.

Last week's flows (Saudi Arabia trading report)

Foreigners: Net sales of 1.515 billion riyals, with purchases of 6.62 billion and sales of 8.14 billion.

Saudis: Net purchase of 1.476 billion riyals.

Gulf investors: Net purchases of 38.76 million riyals.

Note: These net figures match their sums (their sum is zero), and we limited ourselves to them because the rest of the details quoted from the report do not match mathematically.

Global influencers this morning

Europe and US futures: Europe opens higher (DAX +0.44% and CAC +0.52% in futures), Dow futures +139 points.

Oil: Brent $104.37 (-0.33%) and WTI $91.27 (-0.63%) amid the US-Russia diesel deal and the energy ceasefire announced by Trump, which Kyiv says it is ready for if Moscow complies.

Gold: $4,184.88 (-0.22%).

US bonds are closed today in observance of Columbus Day.

Technical analysis of TASI (WarrenAI, hourly timeframe, 11:58 AM)

Momentum under pressure

The index is trading at 10,283.42 (-0.75%) and the technical picture is bearish, but the index is approaching a key support level and oversold territory. It is below the 20-period moving average (10,421.56) and below the Ichimoku cloud (10,369.32-10,422.14). The MACD is at -52.32 against a signal of -40.94, but the RSI is at 30.02 and the MFI at 15.61, both of which are in oversold territory and could precede a technical rebound.

Levels:

Pivot support: 10,239.38, about 44 pips (0.4%) away, near the lower Bollinger Band.

Resistance: 10,380, then 10,421.56, then 10,490.29 (Supertrend).

Conditional scenarios

Downward after rebound: Entry between 10,380 and 10,420, stop 10,435, targets 10,239 then 10,100 then 10,000, with a ratio of 2.56:1 then 5.09:1 then 6.90:1 from an entry at 10,380. Relatively high confidence.

Direct downward move: Entry near 10,282, stop loss at 10,435, with a ratio of 0.28:1 to the first target, then 1.19:1, then 1.84:1. The risk ratio is worse, only for active traders.

Upward movement from support: Entry near 10,245, stop loss at 10,190, targets at 10,420, then 10,512, then 10,600, with ratios of 3.18:1, then 4.85:1, then 6.45:1. Low confidence because the trend has not changed.

Upward after confirmation: Hourly close above 10,425, stop loss at 10,190, targets at 10,512 and then 10,600, with a ratio of only 0.37:1 and then 0.74:1.

We reviewed the four ratios and they matched the announced figures.

What changes the image?

Downward: A break of 10,239.38 with higher volume opens the way towards 10,100 and then 10,000.

Rebound: Support holds with oversold conditions, and becomes more reliable with a recovery to 10,421.56 and then a break above 10,490.29.

Reading: 10,239.38 is the defense line, and above 10,421.56 the picture improves, and below it the advantage remains with the sellers.

Agenda

Tuesday, October 13: Results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

Wednesday, October 14: US September inflation at 3:30 PM Saudi time, and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley results.

Locally: The third quarter results season is ongoing and ends on its regular date of November 11, with Aramco's results due on November 3.

October 28: Federal Reserve decision.

What are we watching today?

Closing: Will TASI close above or below the support level of 10,239.38, and will it recover to 10,380 before closing?

Leading companies and banks: Banks, SABIC, and Tadawul Group exert pressure on the index.

News: Any further official developments from the General Authority of Civil Aviation, and the US-Russia oil deal.