Bank of America raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude during the second half of 2026 to $95 per barrel, compared to its previous estimate of $83, citing its expectation that geopolitical tensions will continue and affect global oil supplies until the end of the year.
The bank said in a note that using alternative shipping routes, along with securing the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, helped offset some of the supply shortages caused by the shipping disruptions, but damage to oil infrastructure and continued geopolitical tensions make a return of supplies to normal levels in the short term unlikely.
Raising its Brent forecast to $95 indicates that Bank of America believes the geopolitical risk premium will remain a key factor in oil pricing over the coming months, despite the ability of shipping companies and producers to find routes and alternatives to deal with supply disruptions.
For the full year, the bank expects Brent crude to average around $91 a barrel, while the average is likely to decline to around $80 a barrel during 2027, assuming supply conditions gradually improve and the severity of disruptions decreases.
Bank of America warned of a more severe scenario if supply disruptions persist or if oil facilities and infrastructure suffer further damage.
The bank explained that if supply disruptions continue until the spring of 2027, or if oil infrastructure suffers further damage, Brent crude futures prices could jump to more than $150 a barrel.
Bank of America’s forecasts reflect the widening range of risks surrounding the oil market; while the baseline scenario assumes prices will remain at high levels during the second half of 2026, any further damage to infrastructure or a longer-term supply disruption could push the market to much higher price levels.
