Rich Ross, senior managing director and head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI, believes that market conditions are increasingly aligned with a strong extension of the bullish cycle, with the S&P 500 heading towards 7,000 by the end of 2025, 7,400 in early 2026 and possibly 8,000 later next year.
His framework includes interest rates, currencies, commodities and stocks, with ten notable deals forming his forecast for 2026.
Continued rise of the S&P 500: Ross remains bullish from both a top-down and bottom-up perspective, arguing that lower inflation, yields, and energy prices, along with steeper curves and narrower spreads, create a supportive backdrop for broader market value expansion across sectors and patterns.
Long-term bonds : Ross expects the 10-year US Treasury yield to fall to around 3.0%-3.6%, following declines in the 2-year Treasury yield, inflation, and interest rates. He believes yield curves will sharpen positively, a setup he considers constructive for both bonds and equities.
The US dollar is declining: The strategist is targeting a drop in the US dollar index to around 90, following what he describes as the worst first-half collapse in 50 years. He believes that the continued dollar weakness is a major driver for riskier global assets.
Euro Breakout: Ross expects the EUR/USD pair to break above 1.20, breaking a 10-year base. He also points to the strength of the offshore Chinese yuan and sees the USD/JPY pair stall at around 160.
Crude oil decline: West Texas Intermediate crude futures are expected to move significantly lower as they break down from multi-year highs. Ross argues that lower oil prices, in the absence of a recession, are historically positive for stocks.
Gas collapse: Natural gas futures are expected to fall by around $2. Ross highlights this as an undervalued positive for consumers and risky assets.
Gold Breakout : Gold/US Dollar is a key call to action, with Russ targeting 5,400 as technical momentum builds amid dollar weakness and lower yields.
Super cycle for silver : Ross is particularly optimistic about silver contracts, pointing to a breakout from a 45-year-old cup and handle formation and targeting 100.
Technology leadership: Technology remains the dominant deal in stocks. Ross argues that AI trends are still sound despite recent turmoil, pointing to Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO) and TSMC (TSM) as oversold stocks at support levels, while Tesla (TSLA) and Palantir (PLTR) are expected to double.
Financials, Retail, and Biotech: Ross favors banks, alternative asset managers, and payment names, sees a retail rebound with the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) hitting the bottom, and calls for a biotech breakout, with Lilly, Eli & Co. (LLY) targeting the 1,400 level. He expects commodities, energy, materials, and real estate investment trusts to underperform the broader market in 2026.
