Goldman Sachs predicts US interest rates will remain unchanged throughout 2026 and that a cut will be postponed until next year.

Goldman Sachs expects the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, while postponing the start of its monetary easing cycle until mid-2027, given the continued strength of the US economy and the resilience of the labor market.

In a research note to clients, the bank explained that it now expects to implement only two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each during June and December of 2027, compared to its previous expectations that indicated an interest rate cut in December 2026 and then March 2027.

This revision in the outlook reflects a more hawkish view of the path of US monetary policy, driven by improved economic activity and continued strong employment, which reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts.

With this approach, Goldman Sachs joins a growing list of global financial institutions that expect a prolonged pause in Federal Reserve policy, including Japan’s Nomura, which last month predicted that interest rates would remain unchanged this year.

These projections indicate that US monetary policymakers still believe the US economy can withstand higher interest rates for a longer period, especially with the continued stability of the labor market and the resilience of spending and consumption rates.

Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's direction, given the impact of US interest rates on global markets, including stock, bond, currency and commodity markets, as well as investment flows toward emerging markets.

While continued high interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and individuals, they also help to contain inflationary pressures and maintain price stability.

Analysts believe that postponing the interest rate cut could support the strength of the US dollar and bond yields in the coming period, while it could put additional pressure on high-risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, markets are still watching for any sudden changes in inflation or labor market data that might prompt the Fed to adjust its monetary policy course more quickly than current expectations.

These estimates reflect the cautious stance of major financial institutions regarding the future of the global economy, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in international markets.