The price of Bitcoin rose above $69,000 again, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed his willingness to end the conflict in exchange for security guarantees, statements that ignited a risk appetite in global markets.
This geopolitical shift was quickly reflected in the markets; Brent crude fell by 5%, dropping from above $104 to around $94 within minutes of the ceasefire reports. In contrast, the Nasdaq jumped 3.1%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which had been trading near $105, fell to around $102. Bitcoin moved from around $66,000 to recover to $69,000, registering a daily volatility of 2.5%.
As is well known, oil prices have stabilized at levels roughly 30% higher than pre-conflict levels since the initial strikes between the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28. Now, the overall picture appears to be shifting; with oil prices plummeting and stocks recovering, the inverse relationship between energy prices and risk assets is becoming increasingly apparent, and Bitcoin is no exception to this trend.
Bitcoin price prediction: Will it approach $75,000 as risks recede?
Bitcoin entered the Iranian conflict at $66,000 on February 28th, experiencing a sell-off that pushed it down to $63,100 during the initial shock, before beginning a recovery that reached $74,000 by March 16th, its peak price during the conflict. Over the 24 days of the conflict, Bitcoin gained approximately 2.26%, outperforming gold, which fell by 19%, and the S&P 500, which declined by 3.77%.
We are currently monitoring the $66,000 level as crucial support. Holding above this low, supported by ceasefire catalysts, would position Bitcoin favorably to test the resistance near $75,000. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached approximately $2.2 billion over the past four weeks, indicating that institutional demand has not abated despite the turmoil. For now, the price needs to break above the $72,000 mark.
In a note dated March 24, Bernstein reaffirmed its $150,000 price target by the end of 2026, citing a long-term Bitcoin holder base and demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), even though Polymarket currently gives only a 10% probability of this scenario occurring before year-end. The long-term bet appears to remain valid, while short-term movement hinges on how well Pezeshkian's statements hold up against the realities on the ground.
