According to new Bloomberg data, the average target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026 among top investment strategists is 7,555 points. The range is from a low of 7,000 to a high of 8,100, suggesting a potential upside of 9% from current levels.
Some forecasts are slightly above the consensus, with projections around 7,700 points indicating gains closer to 11%. While the outlook is generally positive, strategists caution that the first half of 2026 could see a correction if bond yields rise sharply, particularly amid concerns that monetary and fiscal policies may be overly stimulative.
Earnings forecasts support much of this optimism. Wall Street predicts that earnings per share for the S&P 500 will reach approximately $306 in 2026, a 12.5% increase from the current consensus estimate of $272. Valuation assumptions remain relatively stable, with expectations that the future price-to-earnings ratio will stay close to its current level of around 22 by the end of next year.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Inc. point to strong U.S. growth, a weak dollar, and productivity gains from artificial intelligence as key factors supporting earnings expansion.
Aside from macroeconomic factors, the profitability of the largest stocks will continue to be a key driver of the S&P 500's earnings growth, they argued, adding that the returns of the index's seven largest stocks – Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft Group, Google, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta – account for about a quarter of its total earnings.
The investment bank forecasts earnings per share of around $305 in 2026, along with 7% revenue growth and moderate marginal expansion. Much of this growth is expected to come from the largest technology companies, which already account for roughly a quarter of the index's total earnings and are projected to see significant profit gains as investment in artificial intelligence continues to increase.
Together, these assumptions form a consensus view that the upward market momentum could continue until 2026, even if the path is uneven.
The bank's strategists added that continued strength in AI investments, along with healthy growth in other businesses, will support sales growth of around +20% for these stocks in 2026.
The S&P 500 index ended the week at $6,929.94.
